The latest forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that the decline in issuing activity will continue to be milder than expected, but the trend is clearly downward through 2022.
MBA forecast as of August 18 revised total tenders for the third quarter by 4.5% to $ 862 billion. But the revised amount is still 20% lower than last year and 18% lower than in the second quarter.
MBA’s data shows that origination peaked at $ 1.26 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2020 and has declined every quarter since. The forecast shows the trend will continue through the first quarter of 2022, when origination is expected to hit a low of $ 516 billion. It shows next year’s high of $ 623 billion in the second quarter and a decline to $ 602 billion in the fourth quarter, the end of the current quarterly forecast horizon.