July 31, 2021

MP Now News

Mortgage News

Higher Yields Today, But Next Week is More Important

Fed Minutes Today at 2 p.m. EST

Follow the markets live as the Fed Minutes release today at 2 p.m. EST.

It’s Fed Day. Are you ready?

If you followed the MBS comment, you know what This afternoon could be a big deal. Markets were prepare for it for weeks and MBS Live members followed these movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are shaken just milliseconds after the Fed announcement, MBS Live members will know what’s going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price streams and alerts is unmatched.

MBS RECAP: higher returns today, but next week is more important

Earlier this week there were “whisper” numbers suggesting outside-farm payrolls could get closer to 1 million, as opposed to the median forecast of 647,000. And that’s not too far from reality (916k). Unemployment fell. Participation has increased. The hours were way too high. At other points in economic history, that big blow would have made yields scream higher, but to date they have risen only moderately. It is unlikely to break above recent highs before the early 12pm close. In any case, we are still waiting for next week to cast the official vote on defending the 1.75+ 10 year yield cap this week.

Econ data / events

  • Fed MBS purchase 10 a.m., 11:30 a.m., 1 p.m.

  • Nonfarm Payrolls 916k vs 647k f’cast, 468k prev
    U / E rate 6.0 vs 6.2
    Participation rate +0.1
    Working week 34.9 vs 34.7 f’cast, 34.6 prev

Market Movement Review

8:57 am

Fast but moderate weakness after the much stronger job report. 10 years results in 2 bit / s at 1.695. UMBS 2.5 fell an eighth to 102-19 (102.59) that day.

12:26 p.m.

The bonds lost ground prematurely around 12 p.m., but not by much more than they had lost at the time of the last update. 10s ended 4 basis points at 1.714 and 2.5 UMBS fell a little more than an eighth point at 102-18 (102.56).

About the author

Operations manager,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live

Matthew, a former creator, started writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. When he saw a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted to the relationship between MBS and broader financial markets for lenders. …

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