Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. But the fall wasn’t as big as it probably looked at first glance.
The consumer price index this morning was slightly higher than forecast by analysts. And Mortgage rates are likely to rise moderately today.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||Effective interest rate*||change|
|Conventional 30 year celebration year||2,836%||2,836%||+ 0.01%|
|Conventionally, 15 years of fixed year||2.165%||2.165%||-0.02%|
|Conventional 20 years old||2.75%||2.75%||Unchanged|
|Conventionally fixed for 10 years||1,947%||1,974%||-0.01%|
|Conventional 5-year ARM||3,489%||3.176%||-0.01%|
|30 years permanent FHA||2,688%||3,343%||Unchanged|
|Fixed FTA for 15 years||2,407%||3,007%||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3,194%||Unchanged|
|30 years of permanent VA||2,253%||2,424%||-0.04%|
|15 years fixed VA||2.25%||2,571%||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM-VA||2.5%||2,372%||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate can be different. Click here for an individual price offer. See our rate assumptions Here.|
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. To learn how the coronavirus could affect your home loan, Click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
The decline in mortgage rates over the past few days has brought the average down to the lower end of the range seen last month. But don’t get too excited. That is a very narrow area.
Worse still, most mortgage rate drivers appear to be geared towards delivering higher rates.
And that’s why my personal rate lock recommendations must remain:
- LOCK when close in 7th Days
- LOCK when close in fifteen Days
- LOCK when close in 30th Days
- LOCK when close in 45 Days
- LOCK when close in 60 Days
However, I do not claim to have perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could be as good as mine – or better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the score this morning at around 9:50 a.m. ET. The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
- The 10-year Treasury yield increased from 1.47% to 1.50%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually follow these particular government bond yields, albeit less recently
- Important stock indices were higher again When opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which depresses the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
- Oil prices rose from $ 70.28 a barrel to $ 70.55. (Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role Generate inflation and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices decreased from $ 1,900 an ounce to $ 1,891. (Neutral for mortgage ratesIn general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear and Greed Index – increased from 52 from 100 to 57. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Therefore, when it comes to mortgage rates, we only count meaningful differences as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess as to what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And they are mostly right. But our record for accuracy won’t hit its old highs until things settle down.
Use markets as a rough guide only. Because they have to be extraordinarily strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise slightly today Note, however, that intraday swings (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important information about current mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Usually mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when the economy is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Rates Are Determined and Why They Should maintenance
- Only “top notch” borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the extremely low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily price action – though they usually all follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily price changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Before releasing this morning’s consumer price index (CPI), The Guardian summed up the state of the markets:
inflation is the hot topic, and economists are forecasting a surge in May on the back of soaring US consumer spending, fiscal support from stimulus packages and the supply shortages hurting businesses as the economy recovers.
The US CPI is projected to climb to a 13-year high of 4.7% year-over-year, up from 4.2% in April – which was already the fastest build since 2008, forcing central banks to stop monetary stimulus programs that drove the recovery and propelled asset prices higher.
Guardian, “Markets prepare for US inflation data and European Central Bank meetings”, June 10, 2021
Well, now we have the May CPI figures. And it turned out that the actual numbers were even higher than the analysts’ forecasts. The main value was 5% above the previous year’s value. And the Wall Street Journal described this as a “spike”, noting that it was “the highest annual inflation rate in nearly 13 years.” Meanwhile, the core CPI (CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices) rose 3.8% yoy, also higher than expected.
What that means for mortgage rates
Well, all of this is unlikely to allay investors’ inflation fears. Of course, we’ll have to wait and see how seriously they take the numbers once they’ve had the chance to digest them completely.
It came as no surprise, however, that 10-year government bond yields rose quite sharply shortly after the CPI report was released. However, they had relapsed 90 minutes later. But that should also mean today that mortgage rates will drive up.
You can find more background information in our llast weekend editionthat offers more space for more in-depth analysis.
The general trend in mortgage rates was clearly declining for much of 2020. And according to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The most recent weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, those increases were largely replaced by declines in April, although these moderated in the second half of this month. Meanwhile, May saw declines that slightly outweighed the increases. Freddie’s June 10 report puts that weekly average at 2.96% (with 0.7 fees and points). Low from 2.99% the previous week.
Expert predictions for mortgage rates
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting developments in the economy, real estate and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below apply to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fannies were updated on May 19th and the MBAs on May 21st. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14th, but it is now only updated quarterly. So expect the numbers to look stale soon.
|Forecasters||Q2 / 21||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21||Q1 / 22|
However, with so many imponderables, current forecasts could be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they are limiting their offerings to vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still probably find the refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan you want. All you have to do is look around.
But of course, no matter what type of mortgage you want, you should compare widely. As a federal supervisory authority Consumer protection office says:
Shopping for your mortgage has the potential to result in real savings. It may not sound like a lot, but it does If you save even a quarter interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
The mortgage reports receive rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners daily. We’ll find an average interest rate and APR for each type of loan shown in our chart. Since we average a range of prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we determine average interest rates for the same types of credit. Example: FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.