Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. Finally! It felt good, even though it was floating in a sea of ascents.
And the cases could go on today. Market movements are the first to indicate this Mortgage rates could easily fall today. However, it is unlikely to be the start of a sustained decline in these rates. I expect higher ones soon.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||APR *||change|
|Conventional set for 30 years||3.24%.||3,245%.||-0.07%|
|Conventional 15 years fixed||2.5%.||2,619%.||-0.13%|
|Conventional set for 20 years||2.906%.||2.998%.||-0.18%|
|Conventional 10 years fixed||2.125%.||2,312%.||-0.26%|
|Fixed FTA for 30 years||3%.||3,663%.||-0.09%|
|Fixed FTA for 15 years||2.775%.||3,363%.||+ 0.03%|
|5 years ARM FHA||2,622%.||3,253%.||+ 0.01%|
|30 years permanent VA||2.75%.||2,926%.||Unchanged|
|15 years fixed VA||2,375%.||2,697%.||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM VA||2.5%.||2,386%.||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions Here.|
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Of course, you can take a risk and wait while mortgage rates are stable or falling. Otherwise nothing has changed. I see the current slack in rises as a breather and expect these rates to resume their uptrend soon.
Of course this is not certain. And below, I’ll set out a few things that can cause interest rates to drop. But these currently seem much less likely than several months living with increases.
So my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:
- LOCK when you approach 7th Days
- LOCK when you approach 15th Days
- LOCK when you approach 30th Days
- LOCK when you approach 45 Days
- LOCK when you approach 60 Days
But I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
- The Return on 10 year treasury fell from 1.70% to 1.65% (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recently
- Important stock indices were lower When opening. ((Good for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives down the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower
- Oil prices rose to $ 59.21 from $ 59.15 per barrel. ((Neutral for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role indicate the creation of inflation and also future economic activity.)
- Gold prices Inches lower to $ 1,732 of $ 1,733 per ounce. ((Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Stable at 53 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors Push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good estimate of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We’re still on the phone. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy will not reach its former high level until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall today, but that is far from certain. Note, however, that intraday fluctuations (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Important information about today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Read ‘How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?‘
- Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Yesterday we reviewed the two strong forces driving mortgage rates high. First, there is growing confidence that post-pandemic economic recovery will soon come and be significant. Second, the fear that the recovery will lead to more inflation. Both typically increase rates.
But what about the forces that could tear them down again? These seem much less likely than a continuation of the existing trend. But they are possibilities, so let’s explore them:
- A new wave of infections from spring break. This should be relatively short-term and not particularly disrupt the markets
- The emergence of a virulent and vaccine-resistant variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Scientists seem confident they can develop new vaccines to counter any of these vaccines. However, it can take many months or a year to create, manufacture, distribute, and maintain these
- Some economists believe that stock markets are in the bubble zone. If this bubble burst, it would be a serious game changer.
- Any other unforeseen event that causes serious damage to the economy
All of this is possible. But none seem likely. If the choice of floating or locking your course was a gamble, you probably wouldn’t support these odds.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the prices went up. And Freddie’s March 18 report puts that weekly average at 3.09% (with 0.7 fees and points) compared to 3.05% the previous week.
Mortgage rate forecasting experts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Fannies were updated on March 17th and the MBA updated on March 22nd. But Freddie now publishes quarterly forecasts. The numbers are from mid-January and look stale:
|Forecaster||Q1 / 21||Q2 / 21||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21|
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions can be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a growing prevalence as the year progresses.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course you should do a lot of shopping in comparison, no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulatory authority, the Consumer Financial Protection Office says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but If you save even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports get interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners every day. We’ll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.