Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday. The recent moves have not been great. But they’re starting to add up. By the way, don’t believe the Freddie Mac numbers released yesterday. They were out of date before publication.
Unfortunately, the recent fall could come to an end. Because it looks like it does Mortgage rates could go up today, maybe noticeable.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||APR *||change|
|Conventional set for 30 years||3,238%.||3,243%.||+ 0.12%|
|Conventional 15 years fixed||2,438%.||2.556%.||+ 0.06%|
|Conventional set for 20 years||2.875%.||2.967%.||+ 0.09%|
|Conventional 10 years fixed||1,982%.||2.214%.||+ 0.01%|
|Fixed FTA for 30 years||2,961%.||3,624%.||+ 0.02%|
|Fixed FTA for 15 years||2.72%.||3,307%.||+ 0.01%|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.606%.||3,254%.||+ 0.01%|
|30 years permanent VA||2.625%.||2.8%.||+ 0.02%|
|15 years fixed VA||2,367%.||2,689%.||+ 0.12%|
|5 years ARM VA||2.5%.||2,392%.||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions Here.|
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
We could see an end to the weeklong mortgage rate decline. Even if today’s likely increase doesn’t occur, I expect an increase next week.
So my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:
- LOCK when you approach 7th Days
- LOCK when you approach 15th Days
- LOCK when you approach 30th Days
- LOCK when you approach 45 Days
- LOCK when you approach 60 Days
But I don’t claim perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
- The Return on 10 year treasury increased from 1.59% to 1.67% (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recently
- Important stock indices were higher when opened. ((Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives down the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite happens when the indices are lower
- Oil prices rose to $ 60.79 from $ 59.22 per barrel. ((Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role indicate the creation of inflation and also future economic activity.)
- Gold prices fell from $ 1,726 $ 1,744 per ounce. ((Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – Climbed from 35 from 100 to 45. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors Push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good estimate of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We’re still on the phone. And are usually correct. But our record for accuracy will not reach its former high level until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to rise higher today. Note, however, that intraday fluctuations (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Important information about today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Read ‘How are mortgage rates determined and why should you care?‘
- Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Yesterday we discussed the possibility that the recent mortgage rate cuts were a technical flaw. They are the result of investors who reviewed their portfolios at the end of the quarter and adjusted the balance of their risks and opportunities.
But not all experts agree with my analysis. Yesterday, Matthew Graham wrote on Mortgage News Daily:
Whether or not this is the beginning of a major reversal remains to be seen. We have had several such promising episodes en route to higher rates and all of them have been “traps” so far. At some point, one of these bounces will be the real deal (and in fact, the higher the rates the more likely it is), but we will waiting for at least a few days of confirmation before getting too committed to the idea.
Now, Mr. Graham is the mortgage rate expert’s mortgage rate expert. And he can be right. But I will dare not agree. Yes, he’s right that “at some point” one of these bounces will be the real deal. But I suspect it could be further in the future than it seems to imply.
Because for me, the momentum towards higher interest rates is currently irresistible. The likelihood of an economic boom this year is growing every day. And fear of the inflation that could lead to it is growing too. And both almost always raise interest rates.
Of course, there is always a distant possibility that something big could melt both drivers. But if it doesn’t, I expect the uptrend to continue for months – punctuated by the occasional technical glitch and the inevitable limited declines that make the uptrend line jagged rather than smooth.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was recorded on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the prices went up. And Freddie’s March 25 report puts that weekly average at 3.17% (with 0.7 fees and points) compared to 3.09% the previous week. However, the methodology of Freddie’s survey means that not all falls were recorded this week.
Mortgage rate forecasting experts
Looking to the future, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for each quarter of 2021 (Q1 / 21, Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21 and Q4 / 21).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Fannies were updated on March 17th and the MBA updated on March 22nd. But Freddie now publishes quarterly forecasts. The numbers are from mid-January and look stale:
|Forecaster||Q1 / 21||Q2 / 21||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21|
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions might be even more speculative than usual. And there is certainly a growing prevalence as the year progresses.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course you should do a lot of shopping in comparison, no matter what type of mortgage you want. As the federal regulatory authority, the Consumer Financial Protection Office says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but If you save even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports get interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners every day. We’ll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.