Today’s mortgage and refinance rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. The problem is, there are only two falls in the last nine working days.
At first it looked like it did Mortgage rates could fall again today or remain stable.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|program||Mortgage rates||APR *||change|
|Conventional set for 30 years||3,103%.||3,108%.||Unchanged|
|Conventional 15 years fixed||2.25%.||2,367%.||-0.03%|
|Conventional set for 20 years||2,813%.||2.904%.||-0.03%|
|Conventional 10 years fixed||1,833%.||2.059%.||-0.08%|
|Fixed FTA for 30 years||2,814%.||3,472%.||Unchanged|
|Fixed FTA for 15 years||2,498%.||3.098%.||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%.||3,201%.||Unchanged|
|30 years permanent VA||2,375%.||2.547%.||-0.13%|
|15 years fixed VA||2.25%.||2.571%.||Unchanged|
|5 years ARM VA||2.5%.||2,379%.||Unchanged|
|Prices are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate could be different. Click here for a personalized price offer. See our tariff assumptions Here.|
COVID-19 Mortgage Updates: Mortgage lenders are changing interest rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here.
Should You Lock A Mortgage Rate Today?
Despite yesterday’s modest decline, mortgage rates have risen since early May. Of course, they could change course and go deeper again.
But I don’t see many reasons to believe that this will happen in a sustainable way. And there are many more – and more compelling – reasons to believe that they will keep moving upwards.
So my personal recommendations for tariff blocking remain:
- LOCK when you approach 7th Days
- LOCK when you approach fifteen Days
- LOCK when you approach 30th Days
- LOCK when you approach 45 Days
- LOCK when you approach 60 Days
However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis could turn out to be as good as mine – or better. So you can be guided by your instincts and your personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Mortgage Rates Today
Here’s a snapshot of the current status this morning at 9:50 a.m. (ET). The dates, compared to about the same time yesterday, were:
- The Return on 10 year treasury decreased from 1.65% to 1.63%. ((Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates usually tend to follow these particular government bond yields, albeit more recently
- Important stock indices were higher When opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.Often times, when investors buy stocks, they sell bonds, which drives down the prices of those stocks and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower
- Oil prices rose from $ 62.84 a barrel to $ 63.59. ((Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a major role indicate in the creation of inflation and also future economic activity.
- Gold prices rose from $ 1,875 an ounce to $ 1,889. ((Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for interest rates when gold rises and worse for interest rates when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN Business Fear & Greed Index – increased from 35 to 37 From 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors Push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they exit the bond market and invest in stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones
* A change of less than $ 20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. Hence, we count significant differences in mortgage rates only as good or bad.
Reservations about markets and prices
Before the pandemic and Federal Reserve intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good estimate of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still use the phone every day. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy will not reach its former high level until things settle down.
Use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be relied on. But with this restriction so far Mortgage rates are likely to fall again today or hardly move. Note, however, that intraday fluctuations (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature these days.
Important information about today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and go down when they are in trouble. There are exceptions, however. Read ‘How are mortgage rates determined and why should you do so? maintenance
- Only top notch borrowers (with great credit scores, high down payments, and very healthy finances) will get the ultra-low mortgage rates you see advertised
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily interest rate movements – though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
- When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
- The refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. However, some types of refinancing are higher after a regulatory change
So there is a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks, or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
today and so on
Overnight, CNN Business’s Nightcap e-newsletter playfully addressed the current debate among economists about future inflation.
On the one hand, the Federal Reserve considers price increases to be “temporary” and will soon fade once the sugar surge from government controls wears off. Nightcap put it this way:
Prices are rising across the board as the economy emerges from the 2020 garbage tornado. The wages are increasing. So are bond yields. The housing market is on fire. This is all good news – as long as the increases are actually “temporary” and not – what’s the word? – continue like a freight train from hell.
However, the article goes on:
[Fed Chair Jerome] Powell’s devotion to the “passing” narrative signals to some analysts that the central bank is underestimating the strength of the rebound and the potential for sky-high inflation that the US has not seen since the late 1970s and early 1980s.
– CNN Business Nightcap, “We trust in GaernApril 20, 2021
The most interesting article is: “… Investors only expect an 11% probability of an interest rate hike [of the Fed’s own rates; not mortgage rates] by the end of the year. “But that is likely to change – up or down, or both – when inflation data is released.
If investors assume the chances of continued inflation to rise, you will see almost higher mortgage rates. So let’s hope Mr. Powell is right.
You can find more background information in our latest version Weekend edition of this report.
For much of 2020, the general trend in mortgage rates was down significantly. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly all-time low was hit 16 times in the past year.
The latest weekly record low was hit on January 7th when 30-year fixed rate mortgages stood at 2.65%. But then the trend was reversed and interest rates rose.
However, those spikes were largely replaced by falls in April, though those eased in the second half of this month. And May has seen climbs so far that outweigh the falls. Freddie’s May 20 report puts this weekly average at 3.0% (with 0.6 fees and points). above from the 2.94% of the previous week.
Expert Mortgage Rate Predictions – Updated Today
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each have a team of economists devoted to monitoring and forecasting the impact on the economy, housing and mortgage rates.
And here are their current interest rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / 21, Q3 / 21, Q4 / 21) and the first quarter of 2022 (Q1 / 22).
The numbers in the table below are for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Fannies were updated on May 19th and the MBA updated on May 21st. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14th. However, it is only updated every quarter. So expect the numbers to look stale soon.
|Forecaster||Q2 / 21||Q3 / 21||Q4 / 21||Q1 / 22|
However, with so many unknowns, the current number of predictions might be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest price today
Some lenders have been terrified by the pandemic. And they limit their offerings to the most vanilla-flavored mortgages and refinances.
But others remain brave. And you can still likely find the withdrawal refinance, investment mortgage, or jumbo loan that you want. You just need to shop broader.
But of course, whatever type of mortgage you want, you should do a lot of shopping in comparison. As the federal regulatory authority, the Consumer Financial Protection Office says:
Shopping for your mortgage can result in real savings. It may not sound like much, but If you save even a quarter point in interest on your mortgage, you will save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Mortgage rate method
The mortgage reports get interest rates based on selected criteria from multiple credit partners every day. We’ll find an average rate and an annual interest rate for each type of loan that we want to show on our chart. Since we calculate a series of average prices, this will give you a better idea of what you might find in the market. We also calculate average interest rates for the same types of loans. For example, FHA was fixed with FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of the daily rates and how they change over time.