The sun rises too and inflation also misses its forecast! After several months of relatively large upside surprises, core PCE inflation finally fell below the median forecast, albeit not by much (3.5 vs. 3.7). Based on recent reactions to inflation data, this is not big news as markets are more interested in the longer-term inflation landscape.
For now, traders were willing to leave inflation swings behind, largely caused by Covid-related disruptions in the supply chain. Major upside surprises in the past few months haven’t done any significant damage to bonds, so the turnaround with Friday’s downside surprise is fair. end of the month, Corporate issue, Income and technology sets the tone for small volatility.
In the slightly larger picture, both stocks and bonds continue to fly hold patterns as they wait to see if the US curve ends up looking like the UK curve
MBS pricing overview
The price shown below is delayed, please refer to the timestamp below. Real-time prices is available through MBS Live.
101-31: + 0-04
|Prices from 07/30/21 11:00 a.m.|
Tomorrow’s economic calendar