April 13, 2021

MP Now News

Mortgage News

Valiant Effort But This Week’s Bounce-Back Effort Falls Short

Fed Minutes Today at 2 p.m. EST

Follow the markets live as the Fed Minutes release today at 2 p.m. EST.

It’s Fed Day. Are you ready?

If you followed the MBS comment, you know what This afternoon could be a big deal. Markets were prepare for it for weeks and MBS Live members have followed these movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are shaken just milliseconds after the Fed announcement, MBS Live members will know what’s going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price streams and alerts is unmatched.

MBS RECAP: Brave effort, but this week’s bounce-back effort falls short

To hit an insult, an injury? Oh, are you already known ?! Of course you are … It’s 2021 and we’re finally talking about the bond market. Just over 24 hours after bonds were supposed to maintain a friendly trend all week, we close near the week’s weakest levels and strongly disapprove of a break below 1.62% (a level that appears to be a good line in the sand for a stronger rally serves prospects). Most frustratingly, there are no obvious scapegoats for today’s price action – just a general 2-day trend starting from yesterday morning’s low yields.

Econ data / events

  • Fed MBS purchase 10 a.m., 11:30 a.m., 1 p.m.

  • Annual core PCE 1.4 vs 1.5 f’cast, 1.5 prev

  • Consumer sentiment 84.9 vs 83.6 f’cast, 83.0 prev

Market Movement Review

8:55 am

Bonds weaker overnight with losses focused on European hours (mostly stronger data). We could also call this a rejection of a break below 1.62% in 10-year returns. In both cases the losses are only “moderate” to date and we are still a long way from Monday’s highs of 1.70+ (currently 1.665%). MBS are less than an eighth. Minimal positive impact from PCE data (slightly weaker core inflation).

10:50 a.m.

Bonds push a little more against the weakness overnight, but progress remains slow. 10 years result in only 1.6 basis points at 1.65% and 2.5 UMBS only 1-2 ticks depending on the moment (-0.3 to -0.06).

12:41 p.m.

The morning rally ended shortly after 11 a.m. No specific reason. MBS corrected a little more abruptly than Treasuries, but both have stabilized in the past few minutes. UMBS 2.5s are only down 1 tick on the day and 10 year yields are only up 1.6 basis points at 1.65%.

5:03 p.m.

More sales … really stable all day, despite a short break from 10 a.m. to 12 p.m. Returns at daily highs. MBS prices at lows. No new specific motivation. Very linear 2-day trend. Apparently, bonds only stick to the script.

About the author

Operations manager,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live

Matthew, a former creator, started writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. When he saw a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted to the relationship between MBS and broader financial markets for lenders. …

Discuss the MBS and mortgage markets on our streaming dashboard