July 31, 2021

MP Now News

Mortgage News

Winning Streak Thwarted, But Not By Much

Fed Minutes Today at 2 p.m. EST

Follow the markets live as the Fed Minutes release today at 2 p.m. EST.

It’s Fed Day. Are you ready?

If you followed the MBS comment, you know what This afternoon could be a big deal. Markets were prepare for it for weeks and MBS Live members have followed these movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are shaken just milliseconds after the Fed announcement, MBS Live members will know what’s going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price streams and alerts is unmatched.

MBS RECAP: winning streak thwarted, but not much

This morning’s day ahead has considered the possibility of a fourth straight day of intraday gains on bonds – something that hasn’t happened since last September. These bullish considerations apparently angered the bondage gods who are a strict and unforgiving crowd. Literally moments later, the bonds turned red and have been red ever since. On the upside, the 10-year returns have been fairly reliably orbiting 1.56% over the past 4 days (in other words, they were flat despite some intraday volatility). This is actually another strong accomplishment considering we have another shortened government bond auction cycle early next week. The interruption of the rising rate of 2021 continues …

Econ data / events

  • Fed MBS purchase 10 a.m., 11:30 a.m., 1 p.m.

  • IHS / Markit PMIs:
    Composite ……… 62.2 vs 59.7 previously
    Services ………… 63.1 vs 61.9 f’cast, 60.4 before
    Manufacturing …. 60.6 vs 60.5 f’cast, 59.1 prev

  • New Home Sales 1,021m vs 886k f’cast, 846k prev
    (highest since 2006)

Market Movement Review

8:29 am

Bonds were microscopically weaker in Asia but steadily gaining ground in Europe. The domestic session starts just slightly stronger, with most of the improvements happening at the CME Open at 8:20 am. 10 years is almost 1 basis point lower at 1.535 and MBS 2.5 coupons are up 1 tick (0.03).

10:21 am

Steady weakness since 9:30 am NYSE open. Stronger PMI and New Home Sales data can actually help. 10 year return now by 3 basis points to 1.572 and 2.5 UMBS by a little more than an eighth.

2:06 pm

Decent rebound at 11am as bonds found technical support before breaking above 1.585% (now down 1.56%). On this day (-0.06) at 103-22 (103.69) UMBS only decreased by 2 ticks.

About the author

Operations manager,
Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live

Matthew, a former creator, started writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. When he saw a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted to the relationship between MBS and broader financial markets for lenders. …

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